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Quantile regression

Quantile regression allows one to estimate and conduct inference about the conditional quantile functions. It is analogous to ordinary least squares? which concerns the conditional mean.

Quantiles

Let Y be a random variable with cumulative distribution function F(y)=Pr(Yy). For 0τ<1, the τ-th quantile of Y is defined as

(1)Q(τ)=inf{y:F(y)τ}.Q(\tau) = \inf \lbrace y: F(y) \geq \tau \rbrace.

Q(τ) is called the quantile function. Like the distribution function, it provides a complete characterization of Y. The median, Q(0.5) is a special case.

Regression

The loss function in the quantile regression framework is the so called “check function”

(2)ρ τ(x)={τx, ifx0 (τ1)x, ifx>0.\rho_\tau(x) = \begin{cases} \tau x, & \text{if} \quad x \geq 0 \\ (\tau - 1)x, & \text{if} \quad x \gt 0 \end{cases}.

For some parametric function q(x i,β), the quantile regression estimate β^ of β maximizes the objective function

(3)1n i=1 nρ τ(x)(y iq(x i,β)).\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n \rho_\tau(x)(y_i - q(x_i,\beta)).

References

  • Koenker, R., and G. W. Bassett (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica 46, 33–50.